THE INCIDENCE OF CHRONIC VIRAL HEPATITIS C IN CHILDREN IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION - LONG-TERM STUDY

Abstract

The article presents the results of analysis of reported incidence of chronic viral hepatitis С (CVHC) in children of Russian Federation in 1999-2018. Material and methods. The study was conducted according to official statistics of CVHC in children in 1999-2018. The authors used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results. The incidence of CVHC in children in the Russian Federation have an uncertain forecast (y = -0,03t + 2,79; R2 = 0,12; p > 0,05). There are regions with low and high incidence of CVHC in children. The increase period (1999-2006) and recession period (2007-2018) of children’s CVHC-incidence were determined. The rate of CVHC-incidence growth in 1999-2006 was 1,4 times lower than the rate of it was reduction in 2007-2018. During the increase period of changes in the CVHC-incidence in children were correlated with the dynamics of the CVHC-incidence in the adult population (0,40 ≤ rS ≤ 0,91; p<0,05; 0,26≤ R2≤ 0,88; 10,53 ≤ F ≤ 43,90; p < 0,05) in all federal district of the Russian Federation. No dependencies were identified during the recession period. Discussion. The authors showed changes in the mechanisms of the CVHC-epidemic process in children. Conclusion. The increase period and recession period of children’s CVHC-incidence are widespread. The rate of increase in the incidence of CVHC in children in 1999-2006 is lower than the rate of its decline in 2007-2018. The mechanisms of the CVHC-epidemic process in children have changed. It is necessary to develop the pediatric approaches in CVHC prevention.