Trend and elimination reserves of life expectancy in the population in the Krasnoyarsk Territory

Introduction. In modern conditions, the main factor in preserving the people in Russia is a decline in mortality and gain in life expectancy, which is especially important for the territories of Siberia and requires detailed study.

The purpose: to study the trend in life expectancy in the population of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the impact on it changes in mortality at certain ages and from leading causes, and elimination reserves.

Materials and methods. Age-specific mortality rates from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database were used. Methods: indirect (demographic) method of constructing mortality tables to calculate life expectancy; E.M. Andreev method to calculate the components of differences and elimination reserves of life expectancy corresponding to individual ages and causes of death.

Results. Life expectancy in men in the Krasnoyarsk Territory for 1990–2021.on average was by 2.0 years lower in women than in the Russian Federation. Until 2019, the gain (declinee) of the indicator was largely due to changes in mortality in working age (especially among men), from diseases of the circulatory system and external causes. More than 80% reduction in the indicator for 2019–2021 was associated with mortality from COVID-19. The life expectancy reserve in 2021 was 13.49 years for men and 9.42 for women. The most significant reserves are associated with the elimination in mortality from COVID-19, diseases of the circulatory system, external causes, and neoplasms.

Research limitations. Territorial and temporal: the study was conducted for the population of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, 1990–2021. The estimated life expectancy reserve is higher than the real one.

Conclusion. When planning the activities of the healthcare system, developing social and demographic programs, in which special attention must be paid to the territories in the east of the country, including the Krasnoyarsk Territory, it is important to know what impact changes in mortality (at what ages and from what causes) have on the trend in life expectancy life, what reserves exist to increase it.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require submission of the opinion of the Biomedical Ethics Committee or other documents.

Contribution of the authors:
Baran O.I. — concept and design of the study, collection and statistical processing of material, compilation of a list of references, writing the text;
Kutumova O.Yu. — research concept and design, editing;
Babenko A.I. — research concept and design, editing.
All authors — are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Funding. The study had no sponsorship.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Received: May 14, 2024 / Accepted: October 3, 2024 / Published: June 30, 2025

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